Monday November 23, 2020
US$ 92.38 down .37 for the week
1.320.760.0332
CORN Corn futures gained 13 cents for the week with a few export sales notices and a healthy weekly report on Thursday. This morning was another huge export sale notice going to unknown destination. The market had already rebounded overnight to a higher high than last week and higher than following the November 10 UDSA report. It appears that if the export keep being reported, and the weather remains dry in SA and USDA does not find some corn somewhere and basis levels remain firm we are in good hands. Those are a lot of factors that need to continue. One thing that catches my eye is a near 400 cash market come January. A producer could make that sale and buy a call option position all the way out to July for potentially less than 15 cents. Let us show you how. SOYBEANS November soybean futures gained 33 cents last week and the January contract hit 1200 overnight. Where did that come from? If someone put a gun to my head and asked for one and only one reason for the move, I would have to say weather in South America. The reason being that export sales have been nonexistent for more than a week and we all know that the stocks number is not going lower anytime soon. We do? Therefore, one can say that these levels are lofty. What do you do at lofty levels? Keep protecting price or at least make a plan for protection and/or sales. Keep your foot in the door. Call for an explanation. CATTLE The December live cattle futures gained 157 last week and cash was steady at 110. And just in time the market has been saved momentarily anyway from further loss by the on-feed report Friday. The number that is getting the most attention is that placements were estimated at 89% of a year ago. Most think that the reports strength would have been delayed until after the first of the year but here we are. So perhaps supply becomes our friend instead of our enemy. There was a huge slaughter number released last week and why not if you can make $400 per head. Now Mr. Packer must secure cattle for a full week next week. This could be positive but of course watch the COVID numbers. Let us start planning for marketing in the dreaded June and August months. Be Thankful |
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