November 11, 2019
US$ 98.20 up 1.15 for the week
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Corn futures lost 12 cents last week but has avoided Friday’s low by one cent so do not hold your breath. Today is Veterans Day and government offices and banks are taking the day off. I too salute veterans for their part in providing all of us with the country that we take for granted too often. So we probably can not take too much away from today’s trade. Needless to say technically this market is not in good standing. Finding a way to take advantage of the strong cash basis is one way to proceed at this point. Even though USDA lowered estimated yield and total production it is not enough to offset supplies and lack substantial demand. The wild cards at this point in time is test weight of this crop and the possible lowering of the harvested acre number.
Soybean futures lost 6 cents last week and continue weakness this morning. USDA did producers no favors Friday by not reducing estimated yield or harvested acres but did increase supply estimates above pre-report estimates. Nothing positive for now and now it appears nothing will change until final numbers in January.
December cattle lost 27 cents last week. The cash trade faired better with a 2-3 dollar advance across all areas. The bulk of cash sales were reported at 116 in the north with a 182 dressed trade. In the south the trade lacked back in the 114-115 range but still stronger. As usual, there are two schools of thought with one side looking for continued strength and the other side thinking that packers bought plenty of cattle last week and will be able to pull back demand this week with lower prices. The futures trade is certainly off to a soft start this morning and again be aware of the holiday trade and look for tomorrow for a clearer picture of where this market is headed. I continue to monitor December put options and today the 118 put is well under 2 dollars.
November milk hovers around 20.00 but the December contract lags back at 19.00 casting a shadow over the trade. For the week butter and cheese both lower with by-products slightly higher. Yes milk supplies are not as big but there is no shortage.
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