Market Update 11/30/2020

Monday November 30, 2020

US$ 91.80 down .58 for the week Certainly testing support



Corn futures gained 11 cents last week and look higher in the early Sunday night trade.  By late morning something has spooked the market now 5 lower with an eleven-cent range.  We really need to avoid Friday’s low at 426 to look somewhat positive.  There were nice export sales of corn reported this morning which of course should be supportive to the market but so far to no avail.  Today is the last trading day of the month so more than usual anything can happen.  The funds certainly have contract length to take profit for the end of the month.  Tomorrow is another day and month.  So far there has not been a lot of estimation the monthly USDA supply/demand numbers but hang on to your hat.


November soybean futures gained 11 cents for the week and did not feel solid in my opinion.  Now the market has thrown us a curve ball overnight.  The problem is that the market traded above Friday’s high and now below Friday’s low so now we must wait and see what the closing value is and how events unfold tonight.  One of the stories getting interest this morning is Russian manipulation and the drop in the wheat market as a result.  Again, we may be faced with an end of the month move with funds taking profits.  Looking forward to December the 1200 mark will be the target resistance and I sure want to avoid the 1060 area of support.  Of course, the overall trend is still up.


The February live cattle contract gained 260 last week but struggled late on Friday and that is continuing this morning with the contract losing 60.  The December options expire this Friday so that is a dead horse so to speak.  The intent of the December contract at that point will be to converge with the cash market for the rest of the month.  There are reports of a high cash trade last week at 112 with most at 111 and we can call that a dollar higher, thank goodness.  One Straits analyst pointed out that for the most part December is not a good month for beef.  I would agree and any kind of rally into mid-December could very well be an opportunity to consider February price protection. One thing that catches my eye is that the weather trend is unseasonably mild and dry which is an excellent forecast for good feedlot gains. 

Any statements of fact herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but do not purport to be complete.  No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained.  Futures trading is speculative, and a substantial risk of loss exists.  The prices above may reflect those of the relevant spot contract.  Movement in the spot contract does not necessarily correlate to the movement of individual option premiums.  Past performances not necessarily indicative of future results.