Monday November 2, 2020
US$ 94.04 up 1,28 That is a move to watch
1.320.760.0332
CORN
Corn futures lost 21 cents last week. Ouch! This morning the market is struggling at 393 which is down another 5. That was the bloom in the market gone for now. If you were astute enough to make some defensive moves last week, we will be looking to be offensive at some point. That number is 393 today so be aware of the action going toward the close of trade. There was another good report of export sales to Mexico this morning, thank goodness. Another note of interest is that more producers are coming up short on yield. Hmm. The other comment being made is that the crop fooled them, in other words they were certain of estimates but missed it by 20-30 bushels. Therefore, basis levels have remained strong and should indicate support going forward. Just like we talked about last week.
SOYBEANS
November soybean futures lost 25 cents last week with the January contract ending at 1056, well below the 1100 mark. It appears this is probably due to better precipitation in Brazil for improved planting and perhaps a slow down in export sale reports. At the same time there was a news story about Brazil buying soybeans from us, yes, the US due to the fact their soybeans are spoken for. This makes me think that the growing season in SA becomes increasingly important. The other bad news is that the January contract has trade below support for the day again below the 1047 level. The investment funds did add to their long position increasing to around 214,000 contracts. That could lead to near term profit taking. It is entirely possible to see the trade down into the 1015-1025 range. That better find some support.
CATTLE
The December live cattle futures gained 472 not quite regaining the previous week’s loss. The beginning trade this morning is not on fire so there is no relaxing yet. The cash trade was also troublesome. The reports were mainly 103-104, yuk, an extreme high of 106 somewhere. The dressed trade was reported 160-162 which is disappointing at best. Now I read this morning that the beginning asking cash price this week is going to be 110. That seems to me to be completely pie in the sky. Again, I will preach the price protection sermon. What do you have to lose? December put options expire the first Friday in December and with today’s steady to slightly higher trade the premiums will be steady to lower. Dang, now down 75, get to work.
Any statements of fact herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but do not purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement, nor with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Futures trading is speculative, and a substantial risk of loss exists. The prices above may reflect those of the relevant spot contract. Movement in the spot contract does not necessarily correlate to the movement of individual option premiums. Past performances not necessarily indicative of future results