Monday November 16, 2020
US$ 92.75 down slightly
1.320.760.0332
CORN
Corn futures gained 4 cents for the week and in some ways was slightly disappointing. You see USDA reduced yield estimates below the lowest pre report estimate as well as stocks numbers which did create a considerably higher trade Tuesday. After that, the market struggled in a big way closing for the week 17 cents off that high. Now it has been a few days since an export sale notice, so the market has no legs. On the positive side the market traded above Friday’s high and if we can stay higher it would indicate the correction lower has been made. How long it will take us to get back to Tuesday’s high is impossible to say. The market needs positive news and I see little at this point.
SOYBEANS
November soybean futures gained 47 cents last week and with the lowest stocks number in several years I would have liked to see better. I mean something more like a limit move higher. Not to mention the stocks to use ratio down at 4.2% which could eventually point another dollar higher, but again more export reports are needed. Perhaps the inspections report this morning at 10 am will carry some weight. In summary it will take a trade above Friday’s high to propel the market higher, otherwise we are likely headed sideways. If that is a direction?
CATTLE
The December live cattle futures gained 127 for the week but as with the other two stories was actually disappointing. Yes, cash trade did increase but less than expectations. It is evident that for some reason the COVID virus affects the cattle market the most. Probably due to restaurant closures and supply distribution problems. Also due to the scare of plant closings and you know what happened the last time. In the background is the little thing called a presidential inauguration and I hope it stays in the background. My opinion would be that the best thing that can happen near term is sideways. I was sure right about pie in the sky last week. FYI December put options expire December 4.
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