September 30, 2019
US$ 98.76 up .31 for the week
This sure is not positive for exports
Corn futures gained 1 cent last week and tested support levels in the upper 360’s and finally got above 370 by weeks end. That is trade is better than being lower but not much. Today at 11 is the quarterly stocks report which at this time appears to be little changed. In fact the 2.4 billion number is still negative to price. Therefore it will be important that the trade does not dwell very long on that number but instead looks forward to the October supply/demand report where there is a chance that USDA will again lower yield estimates and acre estimates. Of course what we are seeing this morning is a higher trade due to negative harvest weather. For my part I would just as soon see harvest progress and get more yield data. Time will tell.
Soybean futures went absolutely nowhere last week and really did not even get close to trading above the 904 level which is needed to get traders attention. The good news is that the trade held above 880 and today looks healthy. So at 11 this morning the stocks report is estimated to come down ever so slightly which must happen or the market is likely to go in the dumper again. Of course the weather is not extremely favorable for harvest and could support the market in the near term. The other factor that is actually positive for now is that China trade talks are not negative and sales in that direction have been made. These sales are significant perhaps mostly because it is really the wrong time of year for their interest. For now it is important to get the November futures contract above 904 and to see stocks number reduced somewhat. Good luck.
December cattle gained 11.22 last week and of course marked highs we have not seen for two months. Today’s trade is not as peppy with most contracts 50-75 lower. As long as the December contract holds above 108.65 technically things will stay positive. The cash trade was constructive as well last week with a dollar higher value in the south at 103 and three dollars higher in the north at 107 reported in Colorado. Total slaughter numbers were reported to be less than the previous week and I have heard of some overweight horror stories in a few areas which is never a good thing. The good thing is that it is the time of year when it is likely to see total available supplies taper off. Also of note is that the beef cutout values have been struggling and it would be nice to see that stabilize soon.
October milk futures lost 50 cents last week ending at 1817 in a repeat of the previous week giving back much of the gains make in the one good week. And yes you guessed it, cheese was also a big loser last week. Hate to say I told you so.
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